The Next Phase of Jihad

About the Book

The author's hypothesis is that following historical pattern, members of the al-Qaeda Network (AQN) stand a very good chance of undergoing a metamorphosis from Islamic insurgents to gangsters. Organized crime groups are motivated by money rather than ideology, and that is where the AQN may be going. Just about every insurgency since WWII, regardless of political views, has engaged in criminal activity as a means of fundraising. At some point for many insurgents crime became a very attractive proposition, which allowed them to forget their original intent to become plain criminals. Drug trafficking has been the most lucrative of the criminal enterprises and has therefore attracted like a magnet these former idealists. There is no reason to believe that members of the AQN will not follow this pattern.

The AQN, despite its resiliency, creativity and daring is being defeated. In 2006 and first half of 2007, there was not a single incident of terrorism by the AQN against American targets anywhere in the world outside of the two war zones in Iraq and Afghanistan! In the mid-to-long-term, they will be defeated and will not be able to achieve their goal of creating a Pan Islamic state. One of the AQN's remarkable skills is the enterprising audacity of the members to raise funds through criminal misdeeds. The next phase of Jihad could very well be fought in the back allies of Western Europe and North America between gangsters and members and former members of the AQN over turf. Trafficking in narcotics, without a doubt, will only be one business focus area for AQN veterans. They will be linked to other criminal enterprises and operate as members of the international criminal underworld. The Western World should be ready to deal with the new challenge.

About the Author

Dr. Fermoselle is a retired U.S. Foreign Service Officer and author of several books and multiple articles on a wide variety of subjects. Until recently, he worked as a civilian contractor at the US European Command (USEUCOM) in Stuttgart, Germany. Prior to going to Germany, he was a Systems of Systems Analyst (SOSA) and instructor at the Standing Joint Forces Headquarters (SJFHQ, Core Element - Standards and Readiness) at the US Joint Forces Command (JFCOM). He participated in TASKFORCE IV (reconstruction of Iraq), in support of CENTCOM, in advanced of the invasion in 2003, and in the training to stand up SOSA cells at SJHQ's at regional combatant commands, including PACOM, SOUTHCOM, EUCOM and NORTH-COM during 2003 and 2004. At EUCOM, he was a member of the SOSA team, and the Strategy, Policy and Assessment Directorate, Effects Assessment cell.